Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

History may repeat itself. We do not forget the iconic scene of Iranian Minister Javad Zarif standing on the balcony of the Palais Coburg Hotel in Vienna 11 years ago, waving to journalists with a smile after signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

In the promised “memorandum of understanding” or “framework agreement” between Iran and the US, there are many important commitments, all of which could serve as seeds for forthcoming geopolitical changes. However, it will not address every issue, such as the nuclear program.

Sparked by Hamas’ attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, the war with Iran has been raging for more than two years.

With Iran’s regional proxies now significantly diminished, a fundamental question arises: what is the ultimate goal of this war?

Writers of political fiction have managed to spread the idea of “Talmudic Greater Israel,” taking advantage of the current weakening of Iranian power, which is spreading fear and frustration among Iran’s allies.

The fighting has not stopped since negotiations in Islamabad came to a halt. US President Donald Trump’s dangerous decision to impose a blockade on Iran’s maritime trade has disrupted the entire landscape, as Iran is now threatening to target Gulf ports.

After the failure of negotiations in Islamabad, the next move is Washington’s to make. It now faces a different set of challenges. The first is deciphering Iranian code: not every “yes” is an affirmation and not every “no” is a definitive rejection.