DUBAI: Across the Arab world, climate change is increasingly being felt through shrinking water supplies, damaged crops and rising food prices. Experts warn that a region already among the world’s most water-stressed is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate-driven hunger and humanitarian crises.
“The Arab world is the most water-scarce region in the world when it comes to per capita availability of fresh water,” Ahmad Mukhtar, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization coordinator for GCC states, told Arab News. “We are a region with very little arable land, less than 5 percent, and we are experiencing some of the highest desertification.”
In the Arab region, the FAO works with local governments and communities to implement sustainable water-management techniques while building policy frameworks to enhance agricultural yield, safeguard natural resources, and shield vulnerable populations from climate-driven food shocks.
The Arab world is heavily reliant on food imports, with the FAO estimating that they could account for nearly two-thirds of food consumption in the region by 2031. (Shuterstock)
As agriculture accounts for the vast majority of local freshwater withdrawals, diminishing supplies leave farming communities exceptionally vulnerable, forcing an unsustainable reliance on volatile global food import markets. Mukhtar said this is being exacerbated by climate change.
“Climate change is outpacing all of the intentions and the fiscal resources that governments have,” said Mukhtar. “In this region many large countries are technically still industrializing and developing, so carbon footprints would probably increase in the coming years due to industrialization.”
The Arab world is heavily reliant on food imports, with the FAO estimating that they could account for nearly two-thirds of food consumption in the region by 2031. Some Gulf states already rely on imports for more than 90 percent of their food needs, said Mukhtar.
The Arab world is heavily reliant on food imports, with the FAO estimating that they could account for nearly two-thirds of food consumption in the region by 2031. (Shuterstock)
“After the Ukraine war started, although it was not a climate-induced shock, we saw a very sudden increase in meat prices. Australia had a rough season and Brazil as well. Veal prices went up and this obviously impacted the region,” he said.
Some countries are better able to withstand global economic shocks affecting food imports, even though they rely heavily on imports.
“In Gulf countries, for example, because the governments have better fiscal capacities, they do not pass this shock of costs much to the consumers,” said Mukhtar.
The Arab world is heavily reliant on food imports, with the FAO estimating that they could account for nearly two-thirds of food consumption in the region by 2031. (Shuterstock)
But some countries, such as Egypt, which imports half of its wheat, are more vulnerable.
“The governments try their level best to subsidize or absorb this price shock,” he said. “But because the fiscal capacities of the governments are limited, if they are keeping their subsidy on wheat, they would have to cut from somewhere else, and people are bound to feel it.”
The increasingly pressing issue for the region is how countries can move toward self-sufficiency in agriculture when water is scarce.
The Arab world is heavily reliant on food imports, with the FAO estimating that they could account for nearly two-thirds of food consumption in the region by 2031. (Shuterstock)
This issue, said Mukhtar, needs to be addressed from an economic perspective. There is no one-size-fits-all solution and, although the concept of self-sufficiency seems ideal, it is simply not a feasible option.
“In Egypt, theoretically speaking, they can produce all of their wheat. But they do not produce that amount,” he said. “They’re producing about half (and) wheat imports (cost) between $3 to $4 billion.
“Why? Because they are using the rest of the land and water to produce foods and vegetables that they export and earn about $12 billion from. It’s up to governments to decide and prioritize.”
The Arab world is heavily reliant on food imports, with the FAO estimating that they could account for nearly two-thirds of food consumption in the region by 2031. (Shuterstock)
He added: “Food self-sufficiency is a very ideal state, but unfortunately it will not be possible in almost all of the countries. That is why we always say that food security is not (the same as) self-sufficiency. That is a very different concept.”
Climate-related shocks affecting major food-producing countries can reduce supply, increase prices and disrupt trade flows.
“Heavy dependence on food imports makes the region highly exposed to disruptions in global food markets,” Samer AbdelJaber, regional director for the UN’s World Food Program, told Arab News. “Climate shocks are reducing crop yields, damaging livelihoods and increasing food prices, making it harder for vulnerable families to access nutritious food.”
People living in conflict zones are the most vulnerable to disruptions in food availability and potable water.
“Yemen, Syria, Palestine, and parts of Iraq and Libya continue to face particularly severe food security challenges,” AbdelJaber said. “In the Arab region, undernourishment rates in conflict-affected countries are approximately four times higher than in non-conflict settings.
“Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, placing additional pressure on food systems, livelihoods and essential services. Climate change is expected to reduce yields of key staple crops, while fruits, vegetables and livestock systems also face significant risks because they depend heavily on scarce water resources and stable climate conditions,” he continued.
More than 47 million people in the Middle East and North Africa lacked basic drinking-water services in 2020, and almost nine out of ten children in the region lived in areas of high, or extremely high, water stress, said Omar El-Hattab, UNICEF’s senior adviser for Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH).
“UNICEF reported in 2023 that 739 million children, or one in three globally, lived in areas exposed to high, or very high, water scarcity,” he explained. “Of these, 436 million faced the combined burden of severe water scarcity and inadequate drinking-water services, placing their health and development at particular risk.”
El-Hattab said humanitarian aid agencies are now working to anticipate risks in order to have a proactive plan of action rather than a reactive one, which can help communities be prepared to protect essential services before catastrophes.
“This means using climate and water-risk information to anticipate droughts, floods and disease outbreaks,” he said. “It means pre-positioning supplies, improving early warning, supporting local response capacity, developing reliable groundwater sources, and helping water systems withstand extreme heat, flooding, drought and power disruption.”
A lack of resources can lead to conflict, causing instability and tension within communities.
“Drought can reduce agricultural production, kill livestock and undermine rural livelihoods,” El-Hattab said. “Water shortages can raise household costs and deepen debt. Families may then move towards towns and cities in search of work, water and public services, increasing pressure on already stretched housing, schools, health facilities and water networks.
“Where water access is unequal or poorly managed, scarcity can deepen grievances between communities, sectors and regions. Displaced families and host communities may be forced to share already inadequate services. If water infrastructure is damaged or poorly maintained, a localized shortage can rapidly become a wider public-health emergency,” he added. “Water scarcity does not make conflict inevitable. But when scarcity combines with inequality, displacement and fragile services, it can make peace and recovery much harder to sustain.”
All agencies agree that damage caused by climate change to agriculture, food availability and water scarcity is reversible. Communities can restore degraded land, improve water management, rehabilitate ecosystems and adopt climate-resilient agricultural practices.
“We have the knowledge, technology and practical solutions to help communities adapt,” said El-Hattab. “Our responsibility is not only to reach a child with water after a system has failed. It is to help build a system that does not fail that child in the first place, because the future of humanitarian action will not be measured only by how effectively we respond to crises; it will be measured by how many crises we prevent from becoming catastrophes.”
